Can Twitter predict the stock market?
نویسنده
چکیده
Last year, in a famous paper, Bollen et al. (2010) made the claim that Twitter mood is correlated with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), and that it can be used to forecast the direction of DJIA changes with 87% accuracy. Besides its obvious significance in investing, this surprising result challenges several fundamental notions in the social sciences, such as the efficient market hypothesis1. In this project, I verify whether the surprising results of Bollen et al. can be reproduced and whether they can produce a profitable investment strategy. Unfortunately, I find that measuring Twitter mood does not offer an improvement over a learning algorithm that only uses past DJIA values.
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